A documentary covering first lady Melania Trump is set for release in the coming days, but even before “Melania” arrives in North American theaters, industry forecasters are predicting a rough start at the box office.
Amazon MGM Studios reportedly paid Melania, 55, $40 million for the film rights. The production company, a subsidiary of the publicly traded Amazon corporation founded by billionaire Jeff Bezos, appears to be headed toward low initial ticket sales.
According to Puck, “Melania” is on pace to gross around $5 million in its opening weekend. While the digital media outlet claimed the projected haul would be a “pretty good” opening for a documentary in 2026, another report lays out Amazon’s strategy of attempting to boost the buzz surrounding “Melania.”
The 104-minute documentary will premiere at the Kennedy Center on Jan. 29 before screening in 1,400 to 1,500 locations across the United States and Canada beginning on Jan. 30. The first lady and President Donald Trump, 79, are expected to be in attendance at the national cultural center in Washington, D.C.
Amazon has also announced special events in various cities across America as a way to promote “Melania” to residents of metropolitan areas such as New York, Chicago, Miami, Philadelphia, Detroit, Boston, Las Vegas, Dallas, and Los Angeles.
Plus, Amazon executives will be present at the nationwide premiere events as a show of force in support of the film. The company also reportedly earmarked an additional $35 million for worldwide marketing and distribution for its theatrical release.
“That’s insanely high for a documentary—though does it shock you? The $40 million acquisition price was widely perceived as a barely veiled payoff to keep Trump happy,” Puck founding partner Matthew Belloni wrote.
The University of California, Berkeley graduate continued, “I suspect dropping an additional $35 million to promote the film will not be nearly as costly to Amazon as the president being upset when his wife’s vanity doc doesn’t open.”
As news of Amazon allegedly using reinforcements to prop up Melania’s documentary spread across the internet, social media users offered their thoughts on “Melania” possibly bombing at the box office.
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“Why are they even surprised? Melania Trump has no charm,” read one post on Threads. A second reply stated, “Oh my gosh, most pathetic thing I’ve ever heard. She’s managed to make herself as hated as he is…. Greed rules this family.”
Similar sentiments were expressed in the MSN comment section. For instance, one person declared, “How pathetic. For the public to hear just how pathetic only enhances the failure of this project.”
“Ah, come on, Bezos. Thought you were smart enough to know ya can’t prop up sludge. Sheeesh,” another individual typed. Likewise, someone commented, “Hilarious… he should make a movie people actually want to see… vs a fluff piece meant to appease the king.”
Melania publishing a self-titled memoir was brought up in comparison to her upcoming self-titled doc when one commenter noted, “They had to do the same for her book. You know there are dozens of cartons of her unsold book in some unused bathroom at Mar-A-Loco.”
Upon its release in October 2024, the “Melania” book topped the Amazon and New York Times best-seller lists with 85,349 hardcover copies sold in the first week. That total was a dramatic drop from fellow former first lady Michelle Obama’s 2018 memoir, “Becoming,” which debuted with 725,000 units sold in all formats on the first day alone.
Melania did see her book have a chart-topping run after Trump won the 2024 presidential election against former Vice President Kamala Harris. “Melania” led both Amazon and Barnes & Noble’s lists in the days after the results were announced in November of that year.
The question still remains of how many moviegoers will pay for tickets to watch Melania’s retelling of the first 20 days leading up to her husband’s second inauguration in January 2025. Disgraced filmmaker Brett Ratner (“Rush Hour”, “X-Men: The Last Stand”) directed the documentary that could end up being more of an eight-figure kickback to the Trump family than a financial success for Amazon.
The struggles surrounding Melania’s documentary are widely read as a reflection of the deep exhaustion many audiences feel toward Trump. Even in projects meant to center her story, his constant controversies and polarizing presence hover in the background, shaping public response before the film even reaches theaters.
And as that resentment follows her into the spotlight, it only sharpens the perception of distance between them, reinforcing the sense that his baggage continues to complicate not just her public image, but the already strained optics of their marriage.
