With deputy prime minister Uhuru Kenyatta moving into the lead as Kenya continues to tally the ballot from its election for president, the United States will be faced with a thorny dilemma if Kenyatta wins, since U.S. officials have stated their preference that Kenyans not elect Kenyatta because of the accusations by the International Criminal Court that he organized and financed a massive number of killings, including the slaughter of women and children, during the 2007 election.
For the U.S., intervention in another country’s election is always a dicey issue, as many Kenyans believe that the electoral support for Kenyatta, who is running against Prime Minister Raila Odinga, is a reaction to comments by Johnnie Carson, the top administration official for Africa.
While President Obama, whose father was from Kenya, in February taped a video message in which he said, “The choice of who will lead Kenya is up to the Kenyan people” Carson’s tone has been different.
“Individuals have reputations; individuals have images, histories and reputations. When they are selected to lead their countries, those reputations do not go away from them, they are not separated,” Carson cautioned.
“We as the United States do not have a candidate or a choice in the elections; however, choices have consequences. We live in an interconnected world and people should be thoughtful about the impact their choices have on their nation, economy, region and the world in which they live,” he said.
Critics say the supporters of Kenyatta and his running mate, William Ruto, flocked to the polls to rally behind them.
“This is going to pose a very awkward situation,” Jendayi Frazer, a former assistant secretary of state for African affairs, told the New York Times. “Kenyatta knows he needs the United States, and the United States knows it needs Kenya.”
“When you inject yourself into an election,” she added, “you never know how it will play.”
But Carson was dismissive of the idea that his comments could make a difference.
“One comment does not swing a contest,” he said.
Kenyatta, 51, son of the Kenya’s first president after independence, is a polarizing figure in Kenya because members of other ethnic groups believe his family stole their ancestral land to create a vast family fortune. Educated at Amherst College, Kenyatta, who is a Kikuyu, also has loyal support. During the last election, he paid for buses to transport Kikuyus from danger and bought food for families who had been burned out of their homes.
“When we needed it, Uhuru was there,” David Wanjohi Chege, a trader, told the New York Times.
But Western governments clearly would prefer the second-place candidate, Prime Minister Raila Odinga, who was trailing with 45 percent of the vote Friday amid complaints from his camp that some results had been “doctored.” The race may be headed for a runoff.
Diplomats in Nairobi said they did not know what their governments would do if Mr. Kenyatta ultimately won — though most expected little or no change in policy unless he was convicted or stopped cooperating with the court. If that happens, some diplomats spoke of targeted sanctions without wanting to be more specific.
“To be honest, there are so many different scenarios, nobody really knows what we’re going to do,” one American official said.
The charges against him by the International Criminal Court say as hundreds of his fellow Kikuyus were being slaughtered, Kenyatta organized a Nairobi street gang to exact revenge, helping to finance the Mungiki, who killed scores of people, including small children burned to death while huddling in their homes. Kenyatta has denied the charges and says he will clear his name. According to analysts, the case against him is rather weak. The trial, which was supposed to start next month, has been postponed until July.
America and Kenya have a close and symbiotic relationship that will make things thorny for American diplomats if Kenyatta wins. According to the Times, American intelligence agents work closely with their Kenyan counterparts to hunt down al-Qaeda cells in Kenya and Somalia, while Kenya receives nearly $1 billion in American aid each year and has agreed to accept captured Somali pirates and hundreds of thousands of refugees, at the request of donors like the United States.
In addition, the largest American Embassy in sub-Saharan Africa is in Nairobi, in addition to a large United Nations campus that runs programs across the world.
One former American official said, “We need Kenya more than Kenya needs us.”
There is a fear that if the U.S. alienates Kenya, the Kenyans will turn to China.
Elsewhere in Africa, the U.S. is making some eyebrow-raising moves to increase the nation’s presence on the continent. As the Times reported, the U.S. is currently in the midst of establishing a drone base in Niger that will host up to “300 United States military and contractor personnel.”
In addition, U.S. Army Gen. David Rodriquez, who is about to become the next commander of the U.S. military’s Africa Command (AFRICOM), said greater U.S. intervention into northwestern Africa is necessary for “stability.”
“With the increasing threat of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb,” Gen. Rodriquez wrote, “I see a greater risk of regional instability if we do not engage aggressively. Our long-term fight against al-Qaeda necessitates persistent engagement with our critical partners.”
