Social conservatives gathered in Washington, DC, over the weekend for the Values Voter Summit, united in their belief that President Barack Obama is destroying their country—but the electoral college math being done by election experts strongly indicated that the president will likely get another four years to antagonize the conservatives.
While many of the public opinion polls show Obama with a comfortable lead over Republican Mitt Romney—Gallup had him up 50 to 44 on Thursday—there are still a few that show the election as a dead heat. But the election, as we have been saying here at Atlanta Black Star for months, is about the electoral college math—winning enough states to cobble together the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
As it stands now, the electoral college math greatly favors the president. According to the New York Times, Obama probably has 237 electoral votes assured—185 from states with solid support plus 52 from states leaning strongly towards him. Romney probably has 206 assured electoral votes (158 from solid states plus 48 leaning towards him). That leaves 95 electoral votes in the battleground states—where Obama needs to win only 33 to become president. This looks extremely doable. By contrast, Romney needs to win 64 of the remaining 95 electoral college votes, which appears to be a very stiff task.
This is news that would not go over very well among the Values Voters, who said they are motivated in the election not by excited over Romney but by their fear and hatred of Obama. Because Romney previously supported things like abortion and gay rights when he was Massachusetts governor, these voters don’t completely trust him. If anybody on the ticket brings them excitement, it is vice presidential candidate Rep. Paul Ryan.
Values Voter attendee Mark Luther, 38, of Kennet, Mo., told Politico that Obama will take the nation closer to socialism.
Most GOP voters he knows, he said, “are afraid of a second [Obama] term, so much so that they think if Obama gets reelected, the country will become socialist.”
Mary Carbone, 59, from a small town outside Pittsburgh feels, told Politico she feels the same way.
“I am running across more and more Americans who understand what this administration is trying to do: They’re trying to destroy our country, trying to destroy our economy,” she said. “A lot of Americans are very angry and very upset about that.”
According to Politico, Carbone said it was the hot mic conversation between Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev earlier this year — in which Obama said he’d have more “flexibility” after he’d been reelected — as “one of the main reasons” she’s backing Romney.