Speculation is raging. Will the rumored smartphone kill the PC? Will it be affordable?
Or, as Twitter user Tanmay Bhat puts it: “We as the human race must collectively ask ourselves — Is our second kidney really that important?”
But analysts at J.P.Morgan have an even more intriguing question: “Can one little phone affect GDP?”
Chief economist Michael Feroli believes sales of the smartphone could potentially add as much as half a percentage point to annualized gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter.
Roughly 8 million iPhone 5s will be sold over the period, even as sales of previous-generation iPhones stay steady, according to the report.
In October 2011, when the last iPhone debuted, sales “significantly outperformed expectations,” Feroli wrote. The iPhone 5 launch “is expected to be much larger.”
The phone will likely retail for around $600, based on its predecessors, Feroli wrote.
“If the imported cost component is similar to previous leading generation phones it would imply around a $200 per phone addition to imports (which is a subtraction from GDP). The difference between these two figures, $400, would represent the trade margins, which figure into GDP,” he wrote
IPhone 5 sales, according to Feroli, could boost GDP by $3.2 billion, or $12.8 billion at an annual rate, increasing fourth-quarter growth by a third of a percentage point…
Read more: Chicago Tribune