Based on Friday trends, it looks like Sony Pictures’ reboot of 1990′s iconic Arnold Schwarzenegger actioner Total Recall now starring anything-but-iconic Colin Farrell won’t give Warner Bros’ and Legendary Pictures’ third-weekend-veteran The Dark Knight Rises the tight race Hollywood expected. (Nice to hear from my opinionated gurus again…) But theatrical grosses are still not returning to normal. Instead of the Aurora shooting tragedy spooking box office, the red-hot London Olympics (“NBC Holds American Viewers Hostage: Day 9″) is distracting film goers. Total movie going this weekend looks like $120M which is down yet again (-25%) from last year.
Right now it looks like the PG-13 rated TDKR (4,242 theaters) bounces back for $10.2M Friday and $35M for #1 this third straight weekend. Creeping in soft to begin with, the PG-13 Total Recall reboot (in 3,601 theaters) will gross $9.2M Friday and $25.5M for the weekend. “The film performed in line with tracking and expectations,” Sony said tersely, meaning that both were pretty low. Problem is, as rival studios point out, that sum won’t be enough to make up the pic’s $150M cost unless it hits big overseas. Worse, the CinemaScore is only a ‘C+’ meaning word of mouth won’t improve over the weekend.
On the other hand, Fox’s PG-rated Diary Of A Wimpy Kid 3 (3,392 theaters) was made on only a $22M negative. This is the first time any installment of this successful Wimpy Kid franchise isn’t releasing in March. And while the original and sequels scored $22.1M and $23.7M respectively, the new one called Dog Days is opening for about $5.8M Friday and $16.8M for the weekend. The CinemaScore of ‘A-’ could mean stronger numbers from the excellent word of mouth.
Full analysis later. Here’s the Top Ten based on Friday estimates:
1. Dark Knight Rises (Legendary/Warner Bros) Week 3 [4,242 Runs] PG13
Friday $10.2M, Weekend $35.0M, Cume $353.0M
2. Total Recall (Sony) NEW [3,601 Runs] PG13
Friday $9.2M, Weekend $25.5M
3. Diary Of A Wimpy Kid 3 (Fox) NEW [3,391 Runs] PG
Friday $5.8M, Weekend $16.8M
Read more: Deadline