The latest polls show that the Republican challenger has pulled even with the president in the key swing state of Ohio, while leading in other critical ones such as Florida, Virginia and North Carolina.
A Suffolk University survey shows Obama and the former Massachusetts governor deadlocked at 47 percent apiece. The news has to be particularly unsettling to a president who had enjoyed a healthy lead until as of late in the state he has considered the key “firewall” to his re-election chances on Nov. 6.
The poll of likely voters, released Monday, also found the Republican presidential nominee pacing Obama, 49 percent to 44 percent, among those planning to vote on Election Day, while Obama led, 48 percent to 44 percent, among those planning to vote before Nov. 6. Obama led, 54 percent to 41 percent, among those who said they had already voted, the survey found.
“Barack Obama has banked an early lead, but Mitt Romney should even the score with his slight edge among likely voters who plan to cast ballots on Election Day,” said David Paleologos, director of the school’s Political Research Center, in Boston. “However, failure to turn out his voters on Nov. 6 could be costly for Romney.”
No Republican presidential nominee has won the White House without carrying Ohio.
A Quinnipiac University/CBS News poll released Monday showed Obama holding a 50 percent to 45 percent lead among likely Ohio voters, compared to a Quinnipiac/CBS News/New York Times poll released Sept. 26 that showed the president leading 53 percent to 43 percent.
The averaging of Ohio polls Monday by RealClearPolitics has Obama leading by roughly 2 percentage points. The website’s averaging of nationwide presidential polls has the candidates essentially tied at 47 percent.
A Fox News poll of Ohio likely voters released Friday showed Obama retaining a 46-43 percent edge over Romney.
The Suffolk statewide survey contacted 600 likely voters on landlines and cellphones and was conducted from Oct. 18-21. The margin of error was roughly four percentage points.
The survey found Obama leading, 53 percent to 41 percent, among women, but trailing Romney, 52 percent to 40 percent, among men. The candidates were essentially even on favorability.
Things appear just as close in many of the other swing states as well. According to a presidential poll conducted by ARG in New Hampshire and Nevada, Romney is ahead by two percent, while Obama has a two-percent advantage percent in Nevada. The polls were conducted from Oct. 19 until Oct. 22.
In a Forum/Essman presidential poll conducted in North Dakota, Mitt Romney had a 25 percent lead.
According to a Tuesday Politico report, Romney is in the lead for “swing-state votes:” 66 percent over Obama’s 44 percent. However, Obama is in the lead for the “Leaning/Likely State Votes” – 237 to 191.
The polling data they use is provided by Real Clear Politics. Based on their findings, Politico reported that Romney will receive all 29 Electoral votes from Florida, all 15 from North Carolina and all 13 from Virginia. Obama, on the other hand, is believed to receive all 18 Electoral votes from Ohio, all 10 from Wisconsin, and all the Electoral votes New Hampshire, Nevada and Iowa have to offer.