Statistician/psephologist/blogger/numbers wizard Nate Silver has turned his analytical eye on several of the Academy Awards categories. The man has received a lot of attention in recent years, especially in 2012, thanks to his ability to predict the outcomes of elections with scary precision. Now, he’s studied the patterns of voting among all the other award shows that have already gone down in order to calculate each of the Oscar nominees’ chances of winning in their respective categories.
Sadly, he’s only done this for six of the awards, so he didn’t just win your Oscar pool for you. If you have the wherewithal and numbers savvy, though, you can use the same method he did to make your own odds for the rest of the awards.
Here are his predictions, but you should really go check out his blog post and read his full rationale behind the chances he gives each nominee.
Best Picture – Argo
Best Director – Spielberg
Best Actor – Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Actress – Jennifer Lawrence
Best Supporting Actor – Tommy Lee Jones
Best Supporting Actress – Anne Hathaway
